TRU-SENTIMENT · DeltaNeutral

USAR Trading Analysis - 09/22/2026 03:15 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT

Options chain · Stock chart · Baseline chart

USAR (USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock) at $16.89. True Sentiment Bullish, delta 40-60 call 89% / put 11%, call $1,417,304 vs put $177,542. RSI 46.8.

Symbol: USAR
Price: $16.89
Article bias (separate from True Sentiment): neutral
Conviction: medium
Published: 2026-09-22 15:15:00 ET
Author: DeltaNeutral staff

TRUE SENTIMENT ANALYSIS (DELTA 40-60 OPTIONS)

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):

Overall Options Flow Sentiment: The overall options flow sentiment is bullish, with a call dollar volume of $1417304.0$ and a put dollar volume of $177542.0$. The call percentage is $88.9%$, indicating a strong bullish sentiment.

Call vs Put Dollar Volume Analysis: The call dollar volume is significantly higher than the put dollar volume, indicating a bullish conviction.

Key Statistics: USAR

$16.78 +0.00%

52-Week Range

$11.45 - $43.98

Market Cap

$8.92B

P/E (TTM)

-6.69

PEG Ratio

N/A

Beta

N/A

Next Earnings

N/A

Avg Volume

$15.64M

Dividend Yield

N/A

Fundamental Snapshot

Valuation

P/E (Trailing)	-6.69
P/E (Forward)	N/A
PEG Ratio	N/A
Price/Book	3.52

Profitability

EPS (Trailing)	$-2.51
EPS (Forward)	N/A
ROE	-11.33%
Net Margin	-2,184.50%

Financial Health

Revenue (TTM)	$13.16M
Debt/Equity	0.18
Free Cash Flow	N/A
Rev Growth	N/A

Analyst Consensus

None

Target: $N/A

Based on None Analysts

📈 Analysis

News Headlines & Context:

Fundamental Analysis:

Revenue Growth: The provided fundamentals data does not include a specific revenue growth rate, but it shows that $totalRevenue = 13162000.0$. The $revenueGrowth is null, so we cannot calculate the growth rate directly.

Profit Margins: The gross margin is $-0.10$, indicating a negative gross margin. The operating margin is $-9.49$, and the profit margin is $-21.85$, both indicating significant losses.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): The trailing EPS is $-2.51$. The forward EPS is null, so we cannot assess future earnings expectations.

P/E Ratio and Valuation: The trailing P/E ratio is $-6.69$, which is negative due to the negative EPS. The forward P/E ratio is null.

Key Fundamental Strengths or Concerns: The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of $0.18$. The return on equity (ROE) is $-0.11$, indicating poor profitability. The market capitalization is $8919593580.0$.

Current Market Position:

Current Price and Recent Price Action: The current price of USAR is $16.88$. The recent price action shows a slight increase in the last few days.

Key Support and Resistance Levels: From the daily history data, key support levels are around $15.0$ and $16.0$, while resistance levels are around $18.0$ and $20.0$.

Intraday Momentum and Trends: The minute bars data shows a slight uptrend in the last few hours, with the price increasing from $16.80$ to $16.89$.

Technical Analysis:

SMA Trends: The 5-day SMA is $15.95$, the 20-day SMA is $17.05$, and the 50-day SMA is $16.97$. The price is currently below the 20-day and 50-day SMAs.

RSI Interpretation: The RSI (14) is $46.81$, indicating a neutral level.

MACD Signals: The MACD is $-0.54$, and the signal is $-0.43$. The histogram is $-0.11$, indicating a bearish signal.

Bollinger Bands: The middle band is $17.05$, the upper band is $19.64$, and the lower band is $14.45$. The price is currently below the middle band.

30-day High/Low Context: The 30-day high is $20.52$, and the 30-day low is $14.88$. The price is currently in the middle of the range.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):

Call vs Put Dollar Volume Analysis: The call dollar volume is significantly higher than the put dollar volume, indicating a bullish conviction.

Key Price Levels:

Support: $15.0$, $16.0

Resistance: $18.0$, $20.0

25-Day Price Forecast:

USAR is projected for $17.50 to $19.00 in 25 days, based on current technical trends, momentum, and indicators.

The projection is based on the current SMA trends, RSI momentum, MACD signals, and recent volatility (ATR). The support and resistance levels are also considered.

Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:

Based on the price forecast, we recommend the following defined risk strategies:

Bull Call Spread: Buy the $17.5 call and sell the $19.0 call, expiring on 2026-10-16.
Iron Condor: Sell the $16.0 put, buy the $17.0 put, sell the $19.0 call, and buy the $20.0 call, expiring on 2026-10-16.
Protective Put: Buy the $16.0 put, expiring on 2026-10-16.

These strategies align with the projected price range and provide a defined risk profile.

Risk Factors:

Technical Warning Signs: The MACD signal is bearish, and the price is below the 20-day and 50-day SMAs.

Sentiment Divergences: The options sentiment is bullish, while the technical indicators are neutral or bearish.

Volatility and ATR: The ATR is $0.91$, indicating moderate volatility.

Summary & Conviction Level:

Overall Bias: Neutral

Conviction Level: Medium

One-line Trade Idea: USAR may experience a short-term bounce due to bullish options sentiment, but technical indicators suggest caution.

View USAR Options Chain

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or buy any securities. The data and information presented are obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Trading options and stocks involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.