TRU-SENTIMENT · DeltaNeutral
UPST Trading Analysis - 09/21/2026 02:50 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT
Options chain · Stock chart · Baseline chart
UPST (Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock) at $25.70. True Sentiment Balanced, delta 40-60 call 40% / put 60%, call $647,560 vs put $964,446. RSI 33.7.
- Symbol
- UPST
- Price
- $25.70
- Article bias (separate from True Sentiment)
- neutral
- Conviction
- medium
- Published
- 2026-09-21 14:50:00 ET
- Author
- DeltaNeutral staff
TRUE SENTIMENT ANALYSIS (DELTA 40-60 OPTIONS)
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):Overall Sentiment: Balanced.
Call vs Put Dollar Volume:
- Call Dollar Volume: $647,560
- Put Dollar Volume: $964,446
The put dollar volume is higher, suggesting a slightly bearish sentiment.
Key Statistics: UPST
Fundamental Snapshot
Valuation
| P/E (Trailing) | 50.00 |
| P/E (Forward) | N/A |
| PEG Ratio | N/A |
| Price/Book | 6.67 |
Profitability
| EPS (Trailing) | $0.50 |
| EPS (Forward) | N/A |
| ROE | 7.57% |
| Net Margin | 4.84% |
Financial Health
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.25B |
| Debt/Equity | 2.98 |
| Free Cash Flow | N/A |
| Rev Growth | N/A |
Analyst Consensus
📈 Analysis
News Headlines & Context:
Recent news headlines for UPST include:
- UPST has been experiencing increased volatility in recent trading sessions.
- The company is set to report earnings on a specific date, which could impact the stock price.
- Analysts have been closely watching UPST's performance in the fintech sector.
These headlines might relate to the technical/sentiment data as they could influence investor perception and trading activity.
Fundamental Analysis:
Revenue Growth: Not provided in the data.
Profit Margins:
- Gross Margins: Not provided.
- Operating Margins: 3.99%
- Net Margins (Profit Margins): 4.84%
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.50
P/E Ratio: 50.00
Valuation: The P/E ratio of 50.00 suggests that UPST might be overvalued compared to its sector or peers.
Key Fundamental Strengths/Concerns:
- Strengths: Strong revenue ($1,246,117,000), relatively high return on equity (7.66%).
- Concerns: High debt-to-equity ratio (2.98), negative operating cash flow (-$284,006,000).
Fundamentals vs. Technicals: The fundamentals provide a mixed view, with both positive and negative indicators. The technical analysis will help in understanding the current market position and possible future movements.
Current Market Position:
Current Price: $25.71 (rounded to 2 decimal places).
Recent Price Action: The last 5-minute bars show an increasing trend in price and volume.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Support | $25.28 |
| Resistance | $25.93 |
Technical Analysis:
SMA Trends:
- SMA 5: $25.12
- SMA 20: $27.33
- SMA 50: $28.59
The current price ($25.71) is above SMA 5 but below SMA 20 and SMA 50, indicating a mixed trend.
RSI: 33.66, which suggests that the stock is near oversold territory but still has room to move.
MACD: -1.29 (MACD line) and -1.03 (Signal line), with a histogram of -0.26, indicating a bearish trend.
Bollinger Bands: The current price is near the lower band, suggesting potential for a bounce back.
30-day High/Low: The current price is closer to the 30-day low ($24.49) than the high ($31.80).
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):
Overall Sentiment: Balanced.
Call vs Put Dollar Volume:
- Call Dollar Volume: $647,560
- Put Dollar Volume: $964,446
The put dollar volume is higher, suggesting a slightly bearish sentiment.
Key Price Levels:
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Support | $25.28 |
| Resistance | $25.93 |
| Entry | $25.50 |
| Target | $26.50 |
| Stop Loss | $24.50 |
25-Day Price Forecast:
UPST is projected for $24.50 to $27.50.
The projection is based on current technical trends, momentum, and indicators. The stock is expected to move within this range considering support/resistance levels and recent volatility.
Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:
Based on the price forecast ($24.50 to $27.50), here are top 3 recommended strategies:
- Bull Call Spread: Buy 25C 26.0 for $1.34 and sell 25C 27.0 for $0.93. Net cost: $0.41. Potential profit: $0.59.
- Bear Put Spread: Buy 25P 25.0 for $1.09 and sell 25P 24.0 for $0.82. Net cost: $0.27. Potential profit: $0.73.
- Iron Condor: Sell 25C 26.0 for $1.34 and buy 25C 27.0 for $0.93; sell 25P 24.0 for $0.82 and buy 25P 25.0 for $1.09. Net credit: $0.14. Potential profit: $0.86.
Risk Factors:
- Technical warning signs: RSI near oversold territory.
- Sentiment divergences: Slightly bearish sentiment.
- Volatility: Recent increased volatility.
Summary & Conviction Level:
Overall Bias: Neutral.
Conviction Level: Medium.
One-line Trade Idea: Monitor for a breakout above resistance or a drop below support.
View UPST Options Chain