UPS Trading Analysis - 09/17/2026 10:17 AM — TRU-SENTIMENT

News Headlines & Context:

Recent news headlines for UPS include:

• UPS is expected to announce its quarterly earnings report on October 30, 2026.
• The company has been investing heavily in its logistics and delivery network, including the expansion of its drone delivery services.
• UPS has also been focusing on sustainability, with plans to reduce its carbon footprint and increase its use of alternative fuels.

These headlines may relate to the technical and sentiment data, as a strong earnings report could boost the stock price, while any concerns about the company's sustainability efforts or logistics challenges could weigh on the stock.

Fundamental Analysis:

Based on the provided fundamentals data:

• Revenue: $89.93 billion
• Trailing EPS: $5.38
• Trailing P/E: 18.36
• Debt/Equity: 3.72
• Return on Equity (ROE): 30.27%

The company's fundamentals show a stable revenue base, with a trailing P/E ratio of 18.36, indicating a relatively fair valuation. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.72 may be a concern for some investors. The ROE of 30.27% suggests that the company is generating strong profits.

Current Market Position:

Current price: $100.33

Recent price action: The stock has been trading in a range, with a recent low of $98.15 and a high of $107.17.

Key support and resistance levels:

• Support: $100.00, $98.15
• Resistance: $105.00, $107.17

Technical Analysis:

SMA trends:

• 5-day SMA: $100.84
• 20-day SMA: $102.43
• 50-day SMA: $106.29

The stock is currently trading below its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day SMAs, indicating a bearish trend.

RSI (14): 33.89, indicating oversold conditions.

MACD: -1.45, indicating a bearish signal.

Bollinger Bands: The stock is currently trading near the lower band, indicating a potential bounce.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):

Overall options flow sentiment: Bullish

Call vs Put dollar volume:

• Call dollar volume: $109,817
• Put dollar volume: $8,093

The options flow sentiment is bullish, with a high call-to-put dollar volume ratio.

Key Price Levels:

Support: $100.00, $98.15

Resistance: $105.00, $107.17

25-Day Price Forecast:

UPS is projected for $98.50 to $105.00

The forecast is based on the current technical trends, momentum, and indicators, including the SMA trends, RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands.

Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:

Based on the price forecast, here are three defined risk strategy recommendations:

1. Bull Call Spread: Buy the $100.00 call and sell the $105.00 call, expiring on October 16, 2026.
2. Bear Put Spread: Buy the $100.00 put and sell the $95.00 put, expiring on October 16, 2026.
3. Iron Condor: Sell the $105.00 call, buy the $110.00 call, sell the $95.00 put, and buy the $90.00 put, expiring on October 16, 2026.

Risk Factors:

• Technical warning signs: The stock is trading below its SMAs, and the MACD is bearish.
• Sentiment divergences: The options flow sentiment is bullish, while the technical indicators are bullish.
• Volatility: The ATR is 1.93, indicating moderate volatility.

Summary & Conviction Level:

Overall bias: Neutral

Conviction level: Medium

One-line trade idea: UPS may trade range-bound in the near term, with potential for a bounce.