UPS Trading Analysis - 09/17/2026 04:42 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT

News Headlines & Context:

Recent news headlines for UPS include:

• UPS is expected to announce its quarterly earnings report on October 30, 2026.
• The company has been investing heavily in its logistics and delivery network, including the expansion of its drone delivery services.
• UPS has also been focusing on sustainability, with plans to reduce its carbon footprint and increase its use of alternative fuels.

These headlines may relate to the technical and sentiment data, as a strong earnings report could boost the stock price, while any concerns about the company's sustainability efforts or logistics challenges could weigh on the stock.

Fundamental Analysis:

Based on the provided fundamentals data:

• Revenue: $89.93 billion
• Trailing EPS: $5.38
• Trailing P/E: 18.36
• Debt/Equity: 3.72
• Return on Equity (ROE): 30.27%

The company's fundamentals show a stable revenue base, with a trailing P/E ratio of 18.36, indicating a relatively fair valuation. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.72 may be a concern for some investors. The ROE of 30.27% suggests that the company is generating strong profits.

Current Market Position:

Current price: $100.17

Recent price action: The stock has been trading in a range, with a recent low of $98.15 and a high of $107.17.

Key support and resistance levels:

• Support: $100.00, $98.15
• Resistance: $105.00, $107.17

Technical Analysis:

SMA trends:

• 5-day SMA: $100.81
• 20-day SMA: $102.43
• 50-day SMA: $106.28

The stock is currently trading below its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day SMAs, indicating a bearish trend.

RSI (14): 33.27, indicating oversold conditions.

MACD: -1.46, signal: -1.17, histogram: -0.29, indicating a bearish signal.

Bollinger Bands: The stock is currently trading near the lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):

Overall options flow sentiment: Bullish

Call vs Put dollar volume:

• Call dollar volume: $2,180,666
• Put dollar volume: $175,436

The options flow sentiment is bullish, with a significant majority of call buying.

Key Price Levels:

Support: $100.00, $98.15

Resistance: $105.00, $107.17

25-Day Price Forecast:

Based on current technical trends, momentum, and indicators, UPS is projected for $98.50 to $103.50.

This range is based on the current SMA trends, RSI momentum, MACD signals, and recent volatility (ATR).

Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:

Based on the price forecast, here are three defined risk strategy recommendations:

1. Bull Call Spread: Buy 1000 calls at $100.00 strike, sell 1000 calls at $105.00 strike. Expiration: October 16, 2026.
2. Bear Put Spread: Buy 1000 puts at $100.00 strike, sell 1000 puts at $95.00 strike. Expiration: October 16, 2026.
3. Iron Condor: Sell 1000 calls at $105.00 strike, buy 1000 calls at $110.00 strike, sell 1000 puts at $95.00 strike, buy 1000 puts at $90.00 strike. Expiration: October 16, 2026.

Risk Factors:

• Technical warning signs or oversold conditions
• Sentiment divergences from price action
• Volatility and ATR considerations

Summary & Conviction Level:

Overall bias: Bearish

Conviction level: Medium

One-line trade idea: Consider bearish strategies given the bearish technical and sentiment divergence.