UPS Trading Analysis - 09/17/2026 02:32 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT

News Headlines & Context:

Recent news headlines for UPS include:

• UPS is expected to announce its quarterly earnings report on October 30, 2026.
• The company has been investing heavily in its logistics and delivery network, including the expansion of its drone delivery services.
• UPS has also been focusing on sustainability, with plans to reduce its carbon footprint and increase its use of alternative fuels.

These headlines may relate to the technical and sentiment data, as a strong earnings report could boost the stock price, while any concerns about the company's sustainability efforts or logistics challenges could weigh on the stock.

Fundamental Analysis:

Based on the provided fundamentals data:

• Revenue: $89.93 billion
• Trailing EPS: $5.38
• Trailing P/E: 18.36
• Debt/Equity: 3.72
• Return on Equity (ROE): 30.27%

The company's revenue growth rate is not provided, but the trailing EPS and P/E ratio suggest a relatively stable earnings picture. The high debt/equity ratio may be a concern, but the strong ROE indicates that the company is generating good returns on shareholder equity.

The fundamentals suggest a neutral to slightly positive outlook, but the technical picture and sentiment analysis will be crucial in determining the near-term direction of the stock.

Current Market Position:

Current price: $100.65

Recent price action: The stock has been trading in a range, with a recent low of $98.15 and a high of $107.17.

Key support and resistance levels:

• Support: $100.00, $98.37 (Bollinger Band lower bound)
• Resistance: $105.00, $106.53 (Bollinger Band upper bound)

Intraday momentum and trends: The minute bars show a relatively stable trading pattern, with some minor fluctuations.

Technical Analysis:

SMA trends:

• 5-day SMA: $100.90
• 20-day SMA: $102.45
• 50-day SMA: $106.29

The stock is currently trading below its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day SMAs, indicating a bearish trend.

RSI (14): 35.16, indicating oversold conditions.

MACD: -1.43, with a bearish signal.

Bollinger Bands: The stock is trading near the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential support.

30-day high/low: The stock is trading near its 30-day low, which could indicate a potential bounce.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):

Overall options flow sentiment: Bullish

Call vs Put dollar volume:

• Call dollar volume: $2,075,563
• Put dollar volume: $86,964

The options flow sentiment is bullish, with a significant majority of call buying.

Key Price Levels:

Support:

• $100.00
• $98.37 (Bollinger Band lower bound)

Resistance:

• $105.00
• $106.53 (Bollinger Band upper bound)

25-Day Price Forecast:

Based on current technical trends, momentum, and indicators, UPS is projected for $98.00 to $105.00.

The forecast is based on the current SMA trends, RSI momentum, MACD signals, and recent volatility (ATR).

Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:

Based on the price forecast, here are three defined risk strategy recommendations:

1. Bull Call Spread: Buy the $100.00 call and sell the $105.00 call, expiring on October 16, 2026.
2. Bear Put Spread: Buy the $100.00 put and sell the $95.00 put, expiring on October 16, 2026.
3. Iron Condor: Sell the $100.00 call and buy the $105.00 call, sell the $95.00 put and buy the $90.00 put, expiring on October 16, 2026.

These strategies align with the bullish options flow sentiment and the technical analysis.

Risk Factors:

Technical warning signs:

• Breakdown below $100.00

Sentiment divergences:

• Divergence between technical indicators and options sentiment

Volatility and ATR considerations:

• Increased volatility could impact the strategies

Summary & Conviction Level:

Overall bias: Neutral to slightly bearish

Conviction level: Medium

One-line trade idea: Consider defined risk strategies to capitalize on potential price movements.