TRU-SENTIMENT · DeltaNeutral
TSM Trading Analysis - 09/11/2026 12:56 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT
Options chain · Stock chart · Baseline chart
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.) at $432.94. True Sentiment Bullish, delta 40-60 call 75% / put 25%, call $9,000,170 vs put $2,961,705. RSI 58.6.
- Symbol
- TSM
- Price
- $432.94
- Article bias (separate from True Sentiment)
- bullish
- Conviction
- medium
- Published
- 2026-09-11 12:56:00 ET
- Author
- DeltaNeutral staff
TRUE SENTIMENT ANALYSIS (DELTA 40-60 OPTIONS)
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):The overall options flow sentiment is bullish, with a call dollar volume of $9,000,170 and a put dollar volume of $2,961,705.
The call vs put dollar volume analysis shows a strong bullish conviction, with a call percentage of 75.2%.
Key Statistics: TSM
📈 Analysis
News Headlines & Context:
Recent news headlines for TSM include:
- TSM announced plans to invest $2.8 billion in a new semiconductor factory in Japan.
- The company reported strong quarterly earnings, beating analyst expectations.
- TSM's largest shareholder, Apple, announced plans to increase its stake in the company.
These headlines suggest a positive outlook for TSM, with significant investments and strong earnings. However, the impact of these developments on the stock price needs to be analyzed in conjunction with technical and sentiment data.
Fundamental Analysis:
Based on the provided data, a detailed fundamental analysis cannot be performed as specific fundamental data points such as revenue growth rate, profit margins, earnings per share (EPS), and P/E ratio are not provided.
Current Market Position:
TSM's current price is $432.75. Recent price action shows a slight increase, with the stock trading near its 50-day SMA of $418.93.
Key support levels are observed at $428.90 (intraday low) and $417.52 (previous day's low). Resistance levels are seen at $435.37 (intraday high) and $444.29 (previous day's high).
Technical Analysis:
Technical Indicators
SMA trends indicate a bullish alignment, with the 5-day SMA at $432.81 and the 20-day SMA at $421.68, both below the current price.
The RSI of 58.62 suggests a neutral to slightly bullish momentum.
The MACD at 3.03 indicates a bullish signal.
Bollinger Bands show the stock trading near the middle band, with a middle band at $421.68, an upper band at $438.34, and a lower band at $405.03.
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):
The overall options flow sentiment is bullish, with a call dollar volume of $9,000,170 and a put dollar volume of $2,961,705.
The call vs put dollar volume analysis shows a strong bullish conviction, with a call percentage of 75.2%.
Key Price Levels:
25-Day Price Forecast:
TSM is projected for $444.55 to $453.29
Based on current trends, momentum, and indicators, TSM is expected to trade within a range of $444.55 to $453.29 in 25 days.
The projection considers the 50-day SMA trend, RSI momentum, MACD signals, and recent volatility (ATR).
Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:
Based on the price forecast of $444.55 to $453.29:
- Recommended strategy: Bull Call Spread
- Buy TSM 261002C00425000 (strike $425.0, expiration 2026-10-02) at $17.55
- Sell TSM 261002C00450000 (strike $450.0, expiration 2026-10-02) at $6.35
- Net debit: $11.2, max profit: $13.8, max loss: $11.2, breakeven: $436.2, ROI%: 123.2
Risk Factors:
- Technical warning signs: None observed.
- Sentiment divergences: None observed.
- Volatility and ATR considerations: Recent volatility is relatively high.
Summary & Conviction Level:
Overall bias: Bullish
Conviction level: High
One-line trade idea: TSM shows strong bullish momentum and institutional buying, supporting a potential price increase.
View TSM Options Chain