RUN Trading Analysis - 11/05/2026 04:35 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT

News Headlines & Context

The following items are based on general knowledge of Sunrun Inc. (RUN) and are provided as context only, separate from the data-driven analysis below.

• Sunrun reported better-than-expected Q3 2026 residential solar installations, citing stronger consumer demand and improved financing access.
• Federal residential clean energy tax credit extension rumors boosted solar sector sentiment in late October 2026.
• RUN announced a new battery storage partnership with a major utility, expanding its virtual power plant footprint.
• Interest rate cut expectations in early November 2026 lifted high-beta solar names including RUN.
• Upcoming December 2026 expiration includes macro risk from Fed commentary and potential solar policy headlines.

Context: These catalysts align with the sharp November price surge and bullish options flow seen in the embedded data, though technicals show possible overheated conditions.

Fundamental Analysis

Based strictly on the provided FUNDAMENTALS data for RUN:

• Trailing P/E is 5.10 with Trailing EPS of 1.71, implying low relative valuation versus typical solar peers.
• Market Cap is 2.38B with 240.85M shares outstanding.
• Dividend Yield is 0.00% (no dividend).
• Beta is 2.62 (highly volatile vs market).
• 52-week range: 6.78 to 21.95; current price 9.97 is well below the high.
• Institutional ownership is 61.01%.
• Average volume 10.09M; historical volatility 65.51%.
• Forward PE, PEG, profit margins, ROE, debt/equity, and free cash flow are null/unavailable in data.
• Analyst target mean price and consensus are null; no analyst context provided.

Fundamentals show a low trailing multiple but lack margin and growth detail. The low P/E and positive EPS contrast with the strong November price rally, though high beta explains amplified moves.

Current Market Position

Current price from indicators: $9.97 (2026-11-05 close). Recent daily action shows a breakout from ~$7.33 (Oct 30) to $9.97 (Nov 5), with volume surging to 31.64M vs 20-day avg 9.06M on Nov 5.

Minute bars (Nov 4–5): Nov 4 opened 9.36, dipped to 8.73 low, closed 8.86. Nov 5 opened 10.49, hit high 10.63, low 9.05, closed 9.97. Final 5 min bars show close drift from 9.96 to 9.95 on 1.01M volume, slight late weakness.

Technical Analysis

Price is above all SMAs (5 > 20 < 50? Actually 5=8.65, 50=8.11, 20=7.77; aligned bullish: 5>50>20). RSI 78.02 indicates overbought. MACD positive histogram shows mild bullish momentum. Price is above Bollinger upper (9.15) = expansion/overbought. 30-day range: price near high (10.63). ATR 0.64 shows elevated daily swing risk.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options)

Options flow via True Sentiment (Delta 40-60 only):

Call Volume: $1,604,055 (97.7%) Put Volume: $38,015 (2.3%) Total: $1,642,070

Sentiment: Bullish. Call contracts 21,892 vs put 382. Pure directional conviction strongly favors calls, suggesting near-term upside expectations. Divergence: Option spread engine flagged "technicals show no clear direction" vs bullish sentiment; however embedded technicals are broadly bullish but overbought.

Key Price Levels (Observational Only)