TRU-SENTIMENT · DeltaNeutral

RARE Trading Analysis - 09/24/2026 10:24 AM — TRU-SENTIMENT

Options chain · Stock chart · Baseline chart

RARE (Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.) at $14.70. True Sentiment Bearish, delta 40-60 call 26% / put 74%, call $59,625 vs put $174,195. RSI 49.0.

Symbol: RARE
Price: $14.70
Article bias (separate from True Sentiment): bearish
Conviction: medium
Published: 2026-09-24 10:24:00 ET
Author: DeltaNeutral staff

TRUE SENTIMENT ANALYSIS (DELTA 40-60 OPTIONS)

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):

Overall Options Flow Sentiment: The sentiment is bearish, with a call percentage of 25.5% and a put percentage of 74.5%.

Call vs Put Dollar Volume Analysis: The call dollar volume is $59,625, and the put dollar volume is $174,195, indicating a bearish conviction.

Key Statistics: RARE

$14.71 -1.11%

52-Week Range

$12.73 - $39.89

Market Cap

$4.45B

P/E (TTM)

-2.53

PEG Ratio

N/A

Beta

N/A

Next Earnings

N/A

Avg Volume

$2.49M

Dividend Yield

N/A

Fundamental Snapshot

Valuation

P/E (Trailing)	-2.56
P/E (Forward)	N/A
PEG Ratio	N/A
Price/Book	-15.48

Profitability

EPS (Trailing)	$-5.82
EPS (Forward)	N/A
ROE	201.36%
Net Margin	-81.70%

Financial Health

Revenue (TTM)	$717.21M
Debt/Equity	-5.32
Free Cash Flow	N/A
Rev Growth	N/A

Analyst Consensus

None

Target: $N/A

Based on None Analysts

📈 Analysis

News Headlines & Context:

Recent news headlines for RARE (Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical) include:

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical reports Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, with significant institutional buying activity.
The company announces positive topline results from its Phase 3 trial of UX004 for treatment-resistant depression.
RARE stock experiences high volatility amid tech sector concerns and potential impacts on biotech industry.

These headlines relate to the technical and sentiment data as they may influence investor confidence, stock price movement, and overall market sentiment.

Fundamental Analysis:

Revenue Growth Rate: The provided FUNDAMENTALS data does not give a direct revenue growth rate, but we can infer trends from historical data.

Profit Margins: The trailing profit margin is -0.82, indicating a loss. Gross, operating, and net margins are not directly provided.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): The trailing EPS is -5.82, and the forward EPS is not provided.

P/E Ratio and Valuation: The trailing P/E ratio is -2.56, suggesting an undervalued or loss-making company. The PEG ratio is not provided.

Key Fundamental Strengths or Concerns: High debt-to-equity ratio (-5.32) and negative return on equity (2.01) are concerns. The market capitalization is $4,503,950,776.32.

Analyst Consensus and Target Price: Not provided in the data.

Fundamentals show a company with significant challenges, including negative profit margins, EPS, and a high debt-to-equity ratio.

Current Market Position:

Current Price and Recent Price Action: The current price is $14.71. Recent price action shows a slight increase.

Key Support and Resistance Levels: Not directly provided, but technical analysis section will cover SMA trends.

Intraday Momentum and Trends: The minute bars show recent price movements and volatility.

Technical Analysis:

SMA Trends: The 5-day SMA is 14.87, the 20-day SMA is 17.29, and the 50-day SMA is 22.83. The price is below all these averages.

RSI Interpretation: The RSI (14) is 48.99, indicating a neutral position.

MACD Signals: The MACD is -2.86, the signal is -2.29, and the histogram is -0.57, indicating a bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands: The middle band is 17.29, the upper band is 27.3, and the lower band is 7.29. The price is near the lower end of the range.

30-day High/Low Context: The 30-day high is 28.5, and the low is 12.73. The price is near the lower end of this range.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):

Overall Options Flow Sentiment: The sentiment is bearish, with a call percentage of 25.5% and a put percentage of 74.5%.

Call vs Put Dollar Volume Analysis: The call dollar volume is $59,625, and the put dollar volume is $174,195, indicating a bearish conviction.

Key Price Levels:

Support levels: $14.58 (recent intraday low), $12.73 (30-day low).

Resistance levels: $15.50 (recent intraday high), $17.29 (20-day SMA).

25-Day Price Forecast:

Based on current trends, RARE is projected for $13.50 to $16.20 in 25 days.

The projection considers the current SMA trends, RSI momentum, MACD signals, and recent volatility (ATR). Support and resistance levels may act as barriers or targets.

Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:

Based on the price forecast ($13.50 to $16.20), recommended strategies include:

Bull Call Spread: Buy RARE 261016C00014000 (14.0 strike) and sell RARE 261016C00015000 (15.0 strike).
Bear Put Spread: Buy RARE 261016P00015000 (15.0 strike) and sell RARE 261016P00014000 (14.0 strike).
Iron Condor: Sell RARE 261016C00014000 (14.0 strike) and RARE 261016P00016000 (16.0 strike), buy RARE 261016C00015000 (15.0 strike) and RARE 261016P00015000 (15.0 strike).

Risk Factors:

Technical Warning Signs: The MACD and RSI indicate a bearish trend.

Sentiment Divergences: The options flow sentiment is bearish, but the price action is slightly positive.

Volatility and ATR: Recent volatility is high, with an ATR of 0.89.

Summary & Conviction Level:

Overall Bias: Bearish.

Conviction Level: Medium.

One-line Trade Idea: RARE shows a bearish trend with bearish sentiment, consider defined risk strategies.

View RARE Options Chain

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or buy any securities. The data and information presented are obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Trading options and stocks involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.