TRU-SENTIMENT · DeltaNeutral
RARE Trading Analysis - 09/23/2026 05:05 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT
Options chain · Stock chart · Baseline chart
RARE (Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.) at $14.95. True Sentiment Bullish, delta 40-60 call 92% / put 8%, call $4,393,185 vs put $377,880. RSI 18.0.
- Symbol
- RARE
- Price
- $14.95
- Article bias (separate from True Sentiment)
- neutral
- Conviction
- medium
- Published
- 2026-09-23 17:05:00 ET
- Author
- DeltaNeutral staff
TRUE SENTIMENT ANALYSIS (DELTA 40-60 OPTIONS)
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):Overall Options Flow Sentiment: Bullish, with a call dollar volume of $4,393,185 and a put dollar volume of $377,880.
Call vs Put Dollar Volume: Calls account for 92.1% of the total dollar volume, indicating strong bullish conviction.
Key Statistics: RARE
Fundamental Snapshot
Valuation
| P/E (Trailing) | -2.68 |
| P/E (Forward) | N/A |
| PEG Ratio | N/A |
| Price/Book | -16.24 |
Profitability
| EPS (Trailing) | $-5.82 |
| EPS (Forward) | N/A |
| ROE | 201.36% |
| Net Margin | -81.70% |
Financial Health
| Revenue (TTM) | $717.21M |
| Debt/Equity | -5.32 |
| Free Cash Flow | N/A |
| Rev Growth | N/A |
Analyst Consensus
📈 Analysis
News Headlines & Context:
Recent news headlines for RARE include:
- Ultragenyx and RARE announce collaboration on rare disease treatments.
- RARE stock experiences significant volatility amid industry-wide biotech fluctuations.
- Company reports promising results from clinical trials for new medication.
These headlines suggest potential positive catalysts for RARE, including partnerships and clinical trial successes, which could impact the stock's price action.
Fundamental Analysis:
Revenue Growth: The provided fundamentals data does not include a specific revenue growth rate, but the total revenue is $717,212,000.
Profit Margins: The operating margin is -0.74, and the profit margin is -0.82, indicating the company is currently operating at a loss.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): The trailing EPS is -$5.82, and the trailing P/E ratio is -2.68, suggesting a negative valuation.
Valuation: The PEG ratio is not provided, but the P/E ratio is negative, which may indicate an undervalued or unprofitable company.
Key Fundamental Strengths or Concerns: The debt-to-equity ratio is -5.32, indicating potential financial stress. The return on equity (ROE) is 2.01, which is relatively low.
Current Market Position:
Current Price: $14.88
Recent Price Action: The stock has seen significant price swings, with a high of $16.12 and a low of $12.73 in the recent period.
Support and Resistance Levels: Key levels to watch are $14.88 (current price), $15.00, and $17.50.
Technical Analysis:
Technical Indicators
SMA Trends: The 5-day SMA is $14.83, the 20-day SMA is $17.88, and the 50-day SMA is $23.17. The stock is currently below all three SMAs.
RSI Interpretation: The RSI is 17.99, indicating the stock is oversold.
MACD Signals: The MACD is -3.0, suggesting a bearish trend.
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):
Overall Options Flow Sentiment: Bullish, with a call dollar volume of $4,393,185 and a put dollar volume of $377,880.
Call vs Put Dollar Volume: Calls account for 92.1% of the total dollar volume, indicating strong bullish conviction.
Key Price Levels:
25-Day Price Forecast:
RARE is projected for $12.50 to $16.50 based on current trends, momentum, and indicators.
Rationale: The forecast considers the current price action, RSI momentum, MACD signals, and recent volatility (ATR). Support and resistance levels may act as barriers or targets.
Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:
Strategy 1: Bull Call Spread - Buy 1 contract of RARE 261016C00015000 ($0.7 bid, $0.9 ask) and sell 1 contract of RARE 261016C00020000 ($0.05 bid, $0.1 ask).
Strategy 2: Protective Put - Buy 1 contract of RARE 261016P00015000 ($0.8 bid, $0.9 ask).
Strategy 3: Iron Condor - Sell 1 contract of RARE 261016C00015000 and buy 1 contract of RARE 261016C00020000, while selling 1 contract of RARE 261016P00010000 and buying 1 contract of RARE 261016P00005000.
Risk Factors:
Technical Weakness: The stock is below key SMAs, and the MACD indicates a bearish trend.
Sentiment Divergences: While sentiment is bullish, technical indicators suggest caution.
Volatility: Recent price swings and ATR suggest high volatility.
Summary & Conviction Level:
Overall Bias: Neutral to Bullish
Conviction Level: Medium
Trade Idea: Monitor for confirmation of trend reversal.
View RARE Options Chain