PBF Trading Analysis - 09/11/2026 11:24 AM — TRU-SENTIMENT

News Headlines & Context:

Recent news headlines for PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) include:

• PBF Energy's subsidiary, PBF Logistics LP, announced the expansion of its terminal capabilities.
• The company reported strong Q2 earnings, beating analyst estimates.
• PBF Energy's stock price has been impacted by fluctuations in crude oil prices.

These headlines suggest that PBF has been actively expanding its operations and has shown resilience in its financial performance despite market volatility.

Fundamental Analysis:

Revenue and Profit Margins: PBF's total revenue is $34,373,200,000. The gross margin is 3.88%, operating margin is 5.78%, and profit margin is 3.97%. These metrics indicate a relatively stable financial performance.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): The trailing EPS is $11.36, indicating a positive earnings trend. However, the forward EPS is not provided.

Valuation: The trailing P/E ratio is 6.79, and the price-to-book ratio is 2.81. The PEG ratio is not available. Compared to the sector or peers, PBF might be considered undervalued given its relatively low P/E ratio.

Debt/Equity and ROE: The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.25, and the return on equity (ROE) is 20.87%. These figures suggest that PBF has a moderate level of debt and a strong ROE, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Current Market Position:

Current Price and Recent Action: The current price of PBF is $79.91. Recent price action shows an increase, with the stock reaching a high of $82.61 on September 11, 2026.

Support and Resistance Levels: Key support levels are around $75.73 (50-day SMA) and $66.84 (lower Bollinger Band). Resistance levels are near $80.0 (current price) and $82.61 (recent high).

Intraday Momentum: The intraday momentum from the minute bars indicates some volatility, with prices fluctuating between $79.65 and $80.28.

Technical Analysis:

SMA Trends: The 5-day SMA is $76.92, the 20-day SMA is $73.41, and the 50-day SMA is $66.45. The price is currently above all these SMAs, indicating a bullish trend.

RSI: The RSI (14) is 62.51, which suggests that the stock is slightly overbought but still within a bullish range.

MACD: The MACD is 3.52, with a signal line of 2.82 and a histogram of 0.70. This indicates a bullish signal.

Bollinger Bands: The middle band is $73.41, the upper band is $79.98, and the lower band is $66.84. The price is near the upper band, suggesting a potential overbought condition.

30-Day High/Low: The 30-day high is $82.61, and the 30-day low is $58.88. The current price is near the upper end of this range.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):

Options Flow Sentiment: The overall sentiment from options flow is bullish, with a call dollar volume of $115,3470.0 and a put dollar volume of $21,640.0. The call percentage is 98.2%, indicating strong bullish conviction.

Call vs Put Analysis: The significant dominance of call options suggests that traders are positioning for further upside in PBF.

Key Price Levels:

Support: $75.73 (50-day SMA), $66.84 (lower Bollinger Band).

Resistance: $80.0 (current price), $82.61 (recent high).

Entry/Target/Stop: Observations: The stock is near resistance at $80.0 and has potential support at $75.73.

25-Day Price Forecast:

PBF is projected for $84.50 to $90.20 based on current technical trends, momentum, and indicators. This range considers the bullish sentiment, recent price action, and potential resistance levels.

Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:

Based on the price forecast of $84.50 to $90.20, consider the following defined risk strategies:

• Bull Call Spread: Buy PBF 261016C00080000 (80.0 strike) and sell PBF 261016C00085000 (85.0 strike). The net debit is $2.80, with a max profit of $2.20 and a breakeven at $82.80.
• Iron Condor: Sell PBF 261016C00075000 (75.0 strike) and buy PBF 261016C00080000 (80.0 strike), while selling PBF 261016P00085000 (85.0 strike) and buying PBF 261016P00090000 (90.0 strike).
• Protective Put: Buy PBF 261016P00080000 (80.0 strike) to hedge against potential downside risk.

Risk Factors:

Technical Weakness: A break below the 50-day SMA ($75.73) could indicate a technical weakness.

Sentiment Divergences: A decrease in bullish options flow sentiment could be a contrarian bearish signal.

Volatility: Increased volatility, as indicated by ATR, could impact the strategy's performance.

Summary & Conviction Level:

Overall Bias: Bullish.

Conviction Level: High.

One-line Trade Idea: PBF shows bullish momentum with strong institutional buying and technical indicators supporting continuation higher.