OSCR Trading Analysis - 10/26/2026 02:15 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT

News Headlines & Context

The following items are based on general knowledge of Oscar Health (OSCR) and are provided for context only, separate from the data-driven analysis below.

• OSCR continued to report membership growth in Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces through recent open enrollment periods, a key catalyst for revenue expansion.
• The company has faced margin pressure from medical loss ratios and regulatory shifts in insurance subsidies, creating fundamental uncertainty.
• No specific near-term earnings date was flagged in provided data; prior fiscal year end was 2025-12-01 per fundamentals.
• Broader healthcare policy headlines regarding ACA funding could act as a volatility catalyst for the stock.
• High beta (3.71) suggests OSCR reacts sharply to both sector momentum and macro rate expectations.

Context: News of membership growth contrasts with the weak recent price trend in the embedded data, while policy risk aligns with the elevated historical volatility (45.74%) and bearish-leaning technicals.

Fundamental Analysis

Based strictly on the provided FUNDAMENTALS data for OSCR:

• Trailing P/E: 18.20; Trailing EPS: $1.70; Market Cap: $9,509,352,450.00; Shares Outstanding: 308,645,000.00.
• Dividend Yield: 0.00% (no dividend). Beta: 3.71 (high systematic risk).
• 52-Week High: $35.01; 52-Week Low: $10.69; current price near $30.70 is closer to high than low.
• Institutional Ownership: 40.11%; Average Volume: 4,762,000.00 shares.
• Historical Volatility: 45.74%; Fiscal Year End: 2025-12-01.
• Revenue growth, profit margins, ROE, Debt/Equity, FCF, PEG, forward PE, and analyst target price are null/unavailable in data.
• Valuation appears modest on trailing P/E (18.20) vs high-beta growth peers, but missing margin data limits quality assessment.
• Fundamentals show large-cap insurer with no dividend and high beta; technicals show price below SMAs, creating divergence from any stable fundamental base.

Current Market Position

From embedded minute and daily data:

• Current price (indicators): $30.70; last minute bar (2026-10-26 13:45): close $30.80, down from open $33.00 on 2026-10-23.
• Daily close 2026-10-23: $30.70, with day low $30.68 and high $33.17; volume 2,711,406 vs 20d avg 2,972,694.
• Minute bars show drift from $31.46 (first) to $30.80 (last) over 70 bars, low-volume choppy decline.
• 30-day range: high $35.01, low $28.30; price sits in lower-middle of range.

Technical Analysis

Price $30.70 is below SMA 5 ($32.71), SMA 20 ($32.27), and SMA 50 ($31.79) – bearish alignment, no golden cross. RSI 41.79 shows weak momentum, not oversold. MACD positive (0.34 > 0.27) with small histogram 0.07 indicates mild bullish bias but below price trend. Bollinger: middle $32.27, upper $35.20, lower $29.34 – price near lower band, no squeeze. 30d range: price in lower third, below midpoint $31.66.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options)

From OSCR_options_20261026_1415.json:

Call Volume: $217,597.00 (67.0%) Put Volume: $107,103.00 (33.0%) Total: $324,700.00

• Sentiment: Bullish per True Sentiment (Delta 40-60 only).
• Call contracts 731 vs put 332; call trades 43 vs put 17 – strong directional call conviction.
• Options flow suggests near-term upside expectation despite sub-SMA price.
• Divergence: Bullish options vs bearish technicals (price below SMAs, RSI<50) – confirmed by spread recommendation "divergence detected".

Key Price Levels (Observational Only)