MPC Trading Analysis - 10/06/2026 02:11 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT

MPC (MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION) at $434.27. True Sentiment Bullish, delta 40-60 call 78% / put 22%, call $1,789,350 vs put $510,400. RSI 60.9.

TRU-SENTIMENT · DeltaNeutral

MPC Trading Analysis - 10/06/2026 02:11 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT

Options chain · Stock chart · Baseline chart

MPC (MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION) at $434.27. True Sentiment Bullish, delta 40-60 call 78% / put 22%, call $1,789,350 vs put $510,400. RSI 60.9.

Symbol
MPC
Price
$434.27
Article bias (separate from True Sentiment)
bullish
Conviction
medium
Published
2026-10-06 14:11:00 ET
Author
DeltaNeutral staff

TRUE SENTIMENT ANALYSIS (DELTA 40-60 OPTIONS)

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):

Bullish

Call Dollar Vol: $1,789,350.00 (77.80%) Put Dollar Vol: $510,400.00 (22.20%) Total: $2,299,750.00

626 call contracts vs 229 put; sentiment Bullish per True Sentiment. Pure directional conviction strongly favors calls (77.8%), confirming near-term upside expectations aligned with technical breakout. No divergence: both price and flow bullish.

Note: Options flow shows heavy call buying at Delta 40-60 filter (37 of 1172 analyzed).

Key Statistics: MPC

$433.92 +0.14%
52-Week Range
$161.93 - $437.67
Market Cap
$121.86B
P/E (TTM)
15.00
PEG Ratio
N/A
Beta
0.26
Next Earnings
N/A
Avg Volume
$1.94M
Dividend Yield
0.01%

Fundamental Snapshot

Valuation

P/E (trailing)15.00
EPS (trailing 12 mo)$28.98
Market cap$121.86B
Shares outstanding280.8M

Dividend

Dividend yield0.92%
Annual dividend$4.00
Ex-dividend date2026-08-19

Risk & range

Beta0.26
52-week low$161.93
52-week high$437.67
Historical volatility32.7%

Ownership & trading

Institutional ownership58.8%
Average daily volume3.0M sh

Reported figures; no analyst estimates.

📈 Analysis

News Headlines & Context:

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has seen steady coverage around refining margin stability and Gulf Coast operational throughput in recent months. Headlines from general knowledge include:

  • U.S. refined product inventories trend lower, supporting crack spread recovery into Q4 2026
  • MPC announced normal quarterly dividend of $1.00/share (ex-dividend Aug 19, 2026 per fundamentals)
  • Midcontinent refinery utilization cited as above seasonal averages in industry reports
  • No major earnings date confirmed in data; fiscal year end listed as 2025-12-01
  • Relative low beta (0.26) suggests MPC less correlated to broad market swings vs peers

Context: News of stable refining margins aligns with the strong upward price trend and bullish options flow in the embedded data, though no specific catalyst event is confirmed in the provided figures.

Fundamental Analysis:

Based strictly on provided FUNDAMENTALS data:

  • Trailing P/E: 15.00; Trailing EPS: $28.98
  • Market Cap: $121,855,584,000.00; Shares Out: 280,825,000.00
  • Dividend Yield: 0.92%; Rate: $4.00; Ex-Div: 2026-08-19
  • Beta: 0.26 (low systemic risk)
  • 52W High: $437.67; 52W Low: $161.93
  • Institutional Ownership: 58.81%
  • Avg Volume: 3,031,000.00; Hist Vol: 32.68%
  • PEG, P/B, Rev Growth, Margins, ROE, D/E, FCF: null/not provided
  • Analyst target / consensus: null

Strengths: Attractive trailing P/E of 15.00 vs typical energy sector premiums, low beta, solid institutional base. Concerns: Lack of margin/ROE/FCF data limits deep quality assessment. Fundamentals (low beta, steady EPS) support the technical uptrend but do not explain the sharp 30-day price surge from $347.67 to $437.67.

Current Market Position:

Current price (2026-10-05 close): $433.30. Minute bars show 2026-10-05 open $422.80 → high $426.55 early, closing $422.04 at 09:30; by 2026-10-06 13:40 last close $434.27 with intraday range $433.69–$435.52. Price hovers near 52-week high $437.67 (also 30-day high). Recent daily action: Oct 05 close $433.30 vs Oct 02 $423.40, confirming breakout.

Resistance
$437.67
Support
$420.08
Lower Support
$403.61

Technical Analysis:

Technical Indicators

SMA 5
$412.91
SMA 20
$403.61
SMA 50
$367.94
RSI 14
60.92
MACD
12.81 / 10.25 / 2.56
BB Upper
$431.44
BB Mid
$403.61
BB Lower
$375.77
ATR 14
17.25
30D Range
$347.67 - $437.67

SMAs aligned bullish: price > SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA50 (no bear cross). RSI 60.92 shows momentum without overbought. MACD histogram +2.56 bullish. Price above BB upper ($431.44) = expansion. 30-day range: price at top 100% ($433.30 vs $437.67 high).

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):

Bullish

Call Dollar Vol: $1,789,350.00 (77.80%) Put Dollar Vol: $510,400.00 (22.20%) Total: $2,299,750.00

626 call contracts vs 229 put; sentiment Bullish per True Sentiment. Pure directional conviction strongly favors calls (77.8%), confirming near-term upside expectations aligned with technical breakout. No divergence: both price and flow bullish.

Note: Options flow shows heavy call buying at Delta 40-60 filter (37 of 1172 analyzed).

Key Price Levels (Observational Only):

52W/30D High
$437.67
SMA5
$412.91
BB Mid/SMA20
$403.61
SMA50
$367.94

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