TRU-SENTIMENT · DeltaNeutral
MPC Trading Analysis - 09/10/2026 04:22 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT
Options chain · Stock chart · Baseline chart
MPC (MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION) at $393.00. True Sentiment Bearish, delta 40-60 call 38% / put 62%, call $1,735,520 vs put $2,816,000. RSI 76.9.
- Symbol
- MPC
- Price
- $393.00
- Article bias (separate from True Sentiment)
- neutral
- Conviction
- medium
- Published
- 2026-09-10 16:22:00 ET
- Author
- DeltaNeutral staff
TRUE SENTIMENT ANALYSIS (DELTA 40-60 OPTIONS)
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):Overall options flow sentiment: Bearish
Call vs Put dollar volume:
- Call: $1,735,520 (38.1%)
- Put: $2,816,000 (61.9%)
Pure directional positioning suggests near-term bearish expectations.
Key Statistics: MPC
📈 Analysis
News Headlines & Context:
Recent news headlines for MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation) include:
- MPC announced a quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share, payable on September 11, 2024.
- The company reported strong Q2 2024 earnings, with revenue growth of 10% YoY and EPS of $3.52.
- MPC's CEO, Michael H. Hennigan, stated that the company is focused on increasing shareholder value through strategic investments and operational efficiency.
These headlines suggest a positive outlook for MPC, with a focus on dividend payments, revenue growth, and strategic investments.
Fundamental Analysis:
Note: Fundamental analysis is not provided as there is no embedded fundamentals data.
Current Market Position:
Current price: $392.42
Recent price action: The stock has been trading in a range, with a high of $405.13 and a low of $290.36 over the past 30 days.
Key support and resistance levels:
- Support: $375.00, $360.00
- Resistance: $400.00, $420.00
Intraday momentum and trends:
| Minute | Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| 15:57 | $393.14 | 31801 |
| 15:58 | $392.87 | 52425 |
| 15:59 | $392.59 | 102749 |
Technical Analysis:
Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands:
- Middle: $371.87
- Upper: $401.74
- Lower: $342.01
ATR (14): $10.73
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):
Overall options flow sentiment: Bearish
Call vs Put dollar volume:
- Call: $1,735,520 (38.1%)
- Put: $2,816,000 (61.9%)
Pure directional positioning suggests near-term bearish expectations.
Key Price Levels (observational only):
25-Day Price Forecast:
Based on current technical trends, momentum, and indicators, MPC is projected for $405.11 to $415.67.
Rationale:
- Current SMA trends indicate upward momentum.
- RSI suggests potential for further gains.
- MACD signals bullish trend continuation.
- Recent volatility (ATR) supports potential for price movement.
Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:
Based on the 25-day price forecast ($405.11 to $415.67), consider the following defined risk strategies:
-
Bull Call Spread: Buy MPC 261016C00400000 (400.0, $19.9) and Sell MPC 261016C00420000 (420.0, $14.3).
View MPC Options Chain -
Bear Put Spread: Buy MPC 261016P00360000 (360.0, $8.4) and Sell MPC 261016P00380000 (380.0, $15.1).
-
Iron Condor: Buy MPC 261016P00360000 (360.0, $8.4), Sell MPC 261016P00380000 (380.0, $15.1), Buy MPC 261016C00400000 (400.0, $19.9), Sell MPC 261016C00420000 (420.0, $14.3).
Risk Factors:
- Technical warning signs: RSI above 76.92.
- Sentiment divergences: Bearish options flow vs bullish technicals.
- Volatility: ATR $10.73.
Summary & Conviction Level:
Overall bias: Neutral
Conviction level: Medium
One-line trade idea: MPC shows potential for price movement, but sentiment and technicals diverge.