LLY Trading Analysis - 09/11/2026 04:57 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT

News Headlines & Context:

Recent news headlines for Eli Lilly (LLY) include:

• LLY announced positive topline results from the VERSA-TM study of tirzepatide (Mounjaro) in adults with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and obesity.
• The company reported that the study met its primary endpoint, showing a significant improvement in symptoms and physical limitations.
• LLY's weight loss drug, tirzepatide, has shown promise in reducing symptoms of HFpEF, a condition affecting millions worldwide.

These headlines relate to LLY's ongoing efforts to expand the use of its flagship products, potentially driving growth and increasing investor confidence.

Fundamental Analysis:

Revenue Growth: The provided fundamentals data does not specify the revenue growth rate. However, we can analyze the trend based on historical data.

Profit Margins: LLY's profit margins are as follows:

• Gross Margin: 83.40%
• Operating Margin: 42.17%
• Net Margin: 33.53%

Earnings Per Share (EPS): The trailing EPS is $29.79.

P/E Ratio and Valuation: The trailing P/E ratio is 37.70, indicating a relatively high valuation. The PEG ratio is not provided.

Key Fundamental Strengths/Concerns:

• High profit margins and strong ROE (78.84%) indicate a robust business model.
• However, the high debt-to-equity ratio (3.20) may be a concern for some investors.

Current Market Position:

Current Price: $1115.70

Recent Price Action: The stock has been trending downward recently, with a 5-day SMA of $1127.24 and a 20-day SMA of $1183.12, indicating a short-term downtrend.

Intraday Momentum and Trends: The minute bars show a slight increase in volume on down days, which could be a sign of selling pressure.

Technical Analysis:

SMA Trends:

• 5-day SMA: $1127.24
• 20-day SMA: $1183.12
• 50-day SMA: $1184.65

The stock is currently below its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, indicating a downtrend.

RSI: The RSI (14) is 2.48, indicating oversold conditions.

MACD: The MACD is -18.96, with a signal line of -15.16, indicating a bearish signal.

Bollinger Bands: The stock is currently near the lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions.

30-day High/Low: The stock is near the lower end of its 30-day range.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):

Overall Options Flow Sentiment: The sentiment is balanced, with a call percentage of 42.5% and a put percentage of 57.5%.

Call vs Put Dollar Volume: The call dollar volume is $6,512,250, and the put dollar volume is $8,801,455, indicating a slightly bearish bias.

Key Price Levels:

Support: $1100.00, $1087.59

Resistance: $1183.12, $1278.66

25-Day Price Forecast:

Based on current trends and indicators, LLY is projected to trade between $1090.00 and $1150.00 over the next 25 days.

Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:

Based on the price forecast, consider the following defined risk strategies:

• Bull Call Spread: Buy the $1100.00 call and sell the $1150.00 call, expiring on 2026-10-16.
• Bear Put Spread: Buy the $1100.00 put and sell the $1050.00 put, expiring on 2026-10-16.
• Iron Condor: Sell the $1120.00 call and buy the $1150.00 call, while selling the $1080.00 put and buying the $1050.00 put, expiring on 2026-10-16.

Risk Factors:

• Technical Weakness: The stock is below its 20-day and 50-day SMAs.
• Sentiment Divergences: The options flow sentiment is balanced, but the technical indicators suggest a bearish bias.

Summary & Conviction Level:

Overall Bias: Neutral

Conviction Level: Medium

One-line Trade Idea: Consider a defined risk strategy, such as a bull call spread or an iron condor, to capitalize on potential price movements.