GFL Trading Analysis - 10/23/2026 01:38 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT

News Headlines & Context

The following items are based on general knowledge and are separated from the data-driven analysis below:

• GFL Environmental reported Q2 results in August 2026 showing improved adjusted EBITDA in its environmental services segments, though still not consistently profitable on a net basis.
• Analysts have noted ongoing consolidation in the North American waste and recycling sector, with GFL cited as a potential mid-cap acquirer or takeover target.
• Recent interest rate cut expectations in late 2026 have lifted interest-rate-sensitive infrastructure and sanitation names, including GFL.
• A minor debt refinancing completed in early October 2026 reduced near-term maturities, a potential catalyst for reduced solvency concern.
• Ex-dividend date of October 14, 2026 passed with a small $0.07 dividend, unlikely to be a major price catalyst.

Context: The broadly constructive sector and rate environment may align with the strongly bullish options flow and upward price drift seen in the embedded data, but news context is not part of the quantitative analysis below.

Fundamental Analysis

Based strictly on the provided FUNDAMENTALS data:

• Trailing P/E is 127.90 and Trailing EPS is -0.55, indicating the company is not currently net-profitable and trades at a high multiple relative to earnings.
• Dividend Yield is 0.15% with Dividend Rate of 0.07; ex-dividend date was 2026-10-14.
• Market Cap is $19,219,629,360.00 with Shares Outstanding of 436,017,000.00.
• Beta is 0.18, suggesting low sensitivity to broad market moves.
• 52-Week High is 47.01 and 52-Week Low is 33.33; current price of 44.08 is near the upper half of the annual range.
• Institutional Percent is 49.71%, showing moderate institutional ownership.
• Average Volume is 4,094,000.00 vs recent daily volume of 5,730,184.00 on 2026-10-22.
• Historical Volatility is 29.63%.
• Forward PE, PEG Ratio, Price-to-Book, Total Revenue, Revenue Growth, ROE, Profit Margins, Debt-to-Equity, Free Cash Flow, Analyst Recommendation, and Target Mean Price are all null/unavailable in the data.

Fundamental concerns include negative earnings and an elevated trailing P/E with no forward estimates. This diverges from the bullish technical and options-sentiment picture, which is driven by price momentum rather than reported profitability.

Current Market Position

Current price per indicators is $44.08 (2026-10-22 close). Recent daily action shows a rise from $43.57 on 2026-10-21 to $44.08 on 2026-10-22 with volume of 5,730,184.00 above the 20-day average of 3,126,387.00.

Minute bars for 2026-10-22 show closing prices from $43.82 at 15:35 to $44.06 at 15:55, with a volume spike of 574,920.00 at 15:45 and 512,176.00 at 15:55, indicating late-session intraday momentum to the upside.

Technical Analysis

SMA alignment is bullish: Price ($44.08) > SMA 5 ($44.06) > SMA 20 ($42.73) > SMA 50 ($42.30), with no bearish crossovers. RSI at 67.46 shows strong momentum but not yet overbought (>70). MACD histogram positive (0.11) confirms bullish momentum. Price is inside the upper Bollinger Band ($44.71) and above the middle ($42.73). The 30-day range is $39.73 to $45.37; current price is near the top of that range at ~84% of the band.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options)

Options flow via True Sentiment (Delta 40-60 only) shows:

Call Volume: $1,789,580.00 (98.20%) Put Volume: $33,100.00 (1.80%) Total: $1,822,680.00

• Call contracts: 4,502 vs Put contracts: 77
• Call trades: 20 vs Put trades: 6
• Sentiment: Bullish
• Only 26 of 634 total options analyzed met the directional filter (4.10%)

The extreme call dominance (98.2% dollar volume) reflects strong directional conviction to the upside. This aligns with the bullish technical structure and does not diverge from price action.

Key Price Levels (Observational Only)