TRU-SENTIMENT · DeltaNeutral
GEO Trading Analysis - 09/10/2026 04:31 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT
Options chain · Stock chart · Baseline chart
GEO (The GEO Group, Inc.) at $31.38. True Sentiment Bearish, delta 40-60 call 38% / put 62%, call $19,735 vs put $31,620. RSI 47.4.
- Symbol
- GEO
- Price
- $31.38
- Article bias (separate from True Sentiment)
- neutral
- Conviction
- medium
- Published
- 2026-09-10 16:31:00 ET
- Author
- DeltaNeutral staff
TRUE SENTIMENT ANALYSIS (DELTA 40-60 OPTIONS)
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):Overall Sentiment: The overall options flow sentiment is Bearish.
Call vs Put: The call dollar volume is $19,735, and the put dollar volume is $31,620. The put-call ratio suggests a bearish sentiment.
Pure Directional Positioning: The pure directional positioning suggests that near-term expectations are bearish.
There is a divergence between the technical indicators (which show a neutral to bullish trend) and the sentiment analysis (which is bearish).
Key Statistics: GEO
Fundamental Snapshot
Valuation
| P/E (Trailing) | 14.84 |
| P/E (Forward) | N/A |
| PEG Ratio | N/A |
| Price/Book | 5.68 |
Profitability
| EPS (Trailing) | $2.13 |
| EPS (Forward) | N/A |
| ROE | 19.24% |
| Net Margin | 10.31% |
Financial Health
| Revenue (TTM) | $2.83B |
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 |
| Free Cash Flow | N/A |
| Rev Growth | N/A |
Analyst Consensus
📈 Analysis
News Headlines & Context:
Recent news headlines for GEO include:
- GEO Group Inc. (GEO) has been in the news recently due to its expanding prison operations and management services.
- The company has announced new contracts and expansions of existing facilities, contributing to its revenue growth.
- However, GEO has also faced criticism and legal challenges regarding its business practices and conditions in its facilities.
These headlines may relate to the technical and sentiment data as they could impact investor perception and future earnings. Positive news about expansions and contracts could support the stock price, while negative news about legal challenges could pressure it.
Fundamental Analysis:
Revenue and Profit Margins: GEO's total revenue is $2,827,321,000. The profit margins are as follows:
- Gross Margin: Not provided
- Operating Margin: 11.16%
- Net Margin: 10.31%
Earnings Per Share (EPS) and P/E Ratio: GEO's trailing EPS is $2.13, and the trailing P/E ratio is 14.84.
Valuation and Debt: The price-to-book ratio is 5.68, and the debt-to-equity ratio is 1.47.
Return on Equity (ROE): GEO's ROE is 19.24%.
Fundamentally, GEO appears to have a stable financial position with a reasonable P/E ratio and a strong ROE. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio could be a concern.
Current Market Position:
GEO's current price is $31.38. Recent price action shows a stable trend with a slight increase.
Support and Resistance Levels: Key support levels are around $30.04 (recent low), and resistance levels are around $32.92 (recent high).
Intraday Momentum: The intraday momentum from the minute bars shows a stable trend with minor fluctuations.
Technical Analysis:
Technical Indicators
SMA Trends: The 5-day SMA is 31.54, the 20-day SMA is 31.57, and the 50-day SMA is 30.94. The price is currently above all three SMAs.
RSI: The RSI (14) is 47.41, indicating a neutral level.
MACD: The MACD is 0.17, showing a bullish signal.
Bollinger Bands: The middle band is at 31.57, the upper band is at 33.05, and the lower band is at 30.09. The price is currently near the middle band.
30-day High/Low: The 30-day high is 33.15, and the low is 28.89. The price is currently in the middle of the range.
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):
Overall Sentiment: The overall options flow sentiment is Bearish.
Call vs Put: The call dollar volume is $19,735, and the put dollar volume is $31,620. The put-call ratio suggests a bearish sentiment.
Pure Directional Positioning: The pure directional positioning suggests that near-term expectations are bearish.
There is a divergence between the technical indicators (which show a neutral to bullish trend) and the sentiment analysis (which is bearish).
Key Price Levels:
25-Day Price Forecast:
GEO is projected for $32.50 to $34.20.
The projection is based on the current SMA trends, RSI momentum, MACD signals, and recent volatility (ATR). The support and resistance levels are also considered.
Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:
Based on the price forecast of $32.50 to $34.20, here are three defined risk strategy recommendations:
- Bull Call Spread: Buy the $32.0 call and sell the $34.0 call, expiring on 2026-10-16. This strategy benefits from a price increase towards $34.20.
- Bear Put Spread: Buy the $30.0 put and sell the $28.0 put, expiring on 2026-10-16. This strategy benefits from a price decrease towards $29.50.
- Iron Condor: Sell the $32.0 call and buy the $34.0 call, while selling the $30.0 put and buying the $28.0 put, expiring on 2026-10-16. This strategy benefits from a stable price around $31.00.
Risk Factors:
- Technical warning signs or weaknesses: A break below $30.04 could indicate a downtrend.
- Sentiment divergences: The bearish sentiment could lead to a price decrease.
- Volatility and ATR considerations: High volatility could impact the strategies.
Summary & Conviction Level:
The overall bias is Neutral with a medium conviction level.
One-line trade idea: Consider a bull call spread or iron condor based on the technical and sentiment analysis.
View GEO Options Chain