CLF Trading Analysis - 10/22/2026 04:47 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT

News Headlines & Context

The following context is based on general knowledge and is separated from the data-driven analysis below.

• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) reported Q3 2026 results earlier in October, with steel demand tied to automotive production showing mixed signals amid UAW labor negotiations.
• Recent headlines highlighted potential Section 232 tariff reviews on imported steel, a historical catalyst for CLF share moves.
• CLF announced a temporary furnace outage at one Midwest facility in mid-October, raising near-term output concerns.
• Analysts noted elevated iron ore costs compressing spot margins for domestic producers including CLF.
• Broader market rotation into cyclical/value names on Oct 19 coincided with an unusual CLF volume spike (76.8M shares).

Context: These fundamental and macro headlines may explain the Oct 19–21 price surge and subsequent options hedging seen in the sentiment data. They are not part of the embedded quantitative analysis that follows.

Fundamental Analysis

Based strictly on the provided FUNDAMENTALS data:

• Trailing EPS is negative at -0.84; the company is not currently profitable on a trailing basis.
• Trailing P/E is 145.70, but with negative EPS this ratio is not meaningful for valuation quality; forward P/E, PEG, profit margins, revenue growth, ROE, and debt-to-equity are all null/unavailable in the data.
• Market cap is $7,445,547,000.00 with 570,540,000.00 shares outstanding and a dividend yield of 0.00%.
• Beta is 2.10, indicating high systemic volatility vs the broader market.
• 52-week range is $7.73 to $15.35; current price ($13.15) sits in the upper third of that range.
• Institutional ownership is 41.30%, average volume 23,056,000.00, historical volatility 69.36%.
• Analyst consensus, target mean price, and recommendation key are null — no street alignment data available.

Fundamentals show a high-beta, unprofitable-at-trailing-EPS steel name with no dividend and unknown margin structure. This diverges from the bullish technical posture (price above all SMAs) and aligns with the bearish options sentiment (hedging/short conviction).

Current Market Position

Current price per indicators is $13.15 (daily close 2026-10-22: $13.15). From daily history, the stock rallied from $11.22 (Sep 28) to $14.38 (Oct 19) then pulled back to $13.15 on Oct 22.

Minute bars (Oct 21–22) show early strength: Oct 21 open $13.63, high $14.15, close $14.10. Oct 22 weakened: open $13.90, low $13.13, close $13.15, with last bar (15:55) printing $13.05 on 2,121,680 volume — clear late-session selling pressure.

Technical Analysis

Price is above SMA 5/20/50 — bullish alignment, though below SMA 5 ($13.47) at close. RSI 61.81 shows moderate bullish momentum, not overbought. MACD (0.40 > signal 0.32, hist +0.08) is bullish but barely positive. Bollinger mid $12.39, price near upper third; upper $14.25 caps near-term. 30-day range: price at $13.15 is 68% up the range ((13.15-10.83)/(14.58-10.83)=0.68). ATR 0.92 implies daily swing risk ~7%.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options)

Options flow via True Sentiment (delta 40-60 only):

Call Volume: $768,715.00 (29.8%) Put Volume: $1,806,790.00 (70.2%) Total: $2,575,505.00

Sentiment is Bearish. Put contracts (13,925) dwarf call contracts (5,868); put dollar vol is 2.35x calls. Pure directional conviction favors downside protection or bearish bets into Nov 20 expiry. This diverges from bullish technicals (price > SMAs, MACD positive). Spread engine returned no recommendation due to this divergence.

Key Price Levels (Observational Only)