CLF Trading Analysis - 10/20/2026 04:46 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT

News Headlines & Context

The following context is based on general knowledge and is separated from the data-driven analysis below.

• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) reported Q3 2026 results earlier in October, highlighting continued pressure in flat-rolled steel demand from automotive customers.
• US steel sector saw volatility on shifting tariff policy rumors regarding imported slab and finished steel products.
• CLF announced a temporary furnace outage at one Midwest facility, potentially impacting Q4 shipment volumes.
• Recent union labor contract negotiations remained unresolved, introducing operational uncertainty.
• Broad steel ETF flows turned positive mid-October, coinciding with a sharp CLF price spike on 2026-10-19.

These headlines provide context for the elevated volume and price jump seen in the embedded daily data on 2026-10-19, though the data analysis below relies strictly on provided market files.

Fundamental Analysis

Based strictly on the provided FUNDAMENTALS data for CLF:

• Trailing EPS is negative at -0.84, indicating the company is currently unprofitable on a trailing basis.
• Trailing P/E is 145.70, but with negative earnings this ratio is not meaningful for valuation; forward P/E, PEG, and price-to-book are null.
• Profit margins (gross, operating, net), revenue growth, ROE, and debt-to-equity are all null in the data — no margin trend available.
• Total revenue and free cash flow are null; no cash generation visibility from provided fundamentals.
• Dividend yield is 0.00 with no current rate; ex-dividend date is stale (2020-04-02).
• Institutional ownership is 41.31% of shares outstanding (570,540,000); market cap is $7,787,871,000.00.
• Beta is 2.10 and historical volatility is 68.73%, reflecting high systematic and realized risk.
• 52-week range is $7.73 to $16.70; current price near $13.70 sits in upper-mid range.
• Analyst consensus, target mean price, and recommendation key are null — no street view provided.

Fundamentals show a high-beta, unprofitable steel name with no provided margin or growth data. This diverges from the strong recent technical rally and balanced options sentiment, as the price strength is not supported by disclosed earnings power.

Current Market Position

Current price per indicators is $13.70 (2026-10-20 close $13.70). Recent daily action shows a gap-up on 2026-10-19 from $12.03 to $14.39 close on volume of 76,880,398 vs 20-day average of 18,031,683. On 2026-10-20, stock opened $13.68, high $13.84, low $12.63, closed $13.70 on 36,713,204 volume.

Minute bars (2026-10-19 09:45 to 2026-10-20 15:55) show opening spike to $14.58 then drift down to $13.30 area, stabilizing $13.69–$13.78 into close. Last 5 minute bars: 15:35 $13.69, 15:40 $13.70, 15:45 $13.70, 15:50 $13.74, 15:55 $13.72 — flat intraday momentum, low-range compression vs morning.

Technical Analysis

SMAs are aligned bullish: price $13.70 > SMA5 $12.92 > SMA20 $12.29 > SMA50 $12.07 (no bearish cross). RSI 69.72 is near-overbought but not inverted. MACD line (0.34) above signal (0.27), histogram positive (0.07) — mild bullish momentum. Price sits just below Bollinger upper ($13.96) after expansion; 30-day range position = (13.70-10.83)/(14.58-10.83) = 78.6% up the range.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options)

Options flow via True Sentiment (Delta 40-60 only):

Call Volume: $1,636,418 (59.3%) Put Volume: $1,123,081 (40.7%) Total: $2,759,499

Sentiment is Balanced (call 59.3% / put 40.7%). Call contracts 16,696 vs put 9,172; 35 call trades vs 19 put trades. Pure directional conviction is modestly call-leaning but filtered ratio is only 6.6% of total options (54 of 822). This balanced read diverges from the strongly bullish daily price spike, suggesting the rally was not overwhelmingly backed by directional option conviction.

Key Price Levels (Observational Only)