CG Trading Analysis - 09/24/2026 12:06 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT

News Headlines & Context:

Recent news headlines for Carlyle Group (CG) include:

• CG has been actively expanding its portfolio in the renewable energy sector, investing in several solar and wind projects.
• The company reported a significant increase in its quarterly earnings, beating analyst expectations.
• CG announced a new partnership with a leading technology firm to enhance its digital transformation efforts.

These headlines suggest a positive outlook for CG, with potential for growth in the renewable energy sector and improved financial performance.

Fundamental Analysis:

Revenue and Profit Margins: CG's total revenue is $3,611,300,000. The profit margins are as follows:

• Gross Margins: Not provided
• Operating Margins: 17.05%
• Net Margins: 14.98%

Earnings Per Share (EPS): The trailing EPS is $0.96. The forward EPS is not provided.

Valuation: The trailing P/E ratio is 40.70, and the price-to-book ratio is 5.98. The debt-to-equity ratio is 2.91, indicating a relatively high level of debt.

Return on Equity (ROE): The ROE is 7.49%, which is a moderate return.

Overall, CG's fundamentals indicate a stable financial position, but with room for improvement in revenue growth and debt management.

Current Market Position:

Current Price: $38.81

Recent Price Action: The stock has been trending downward, with a recent low of $38.76.

Support and Resistance Levels: Key support levels are around $38.76 (recent low) and $40.00 (psychological level). Resistance levels are around $45.00 and $50.00.

Technical Analysis:

SMA Trends: The 5-day SMA is $39.98, the 20-day SMA is $43.70, and the 50-day SMA is $46.01. The stock is currently below all three SMAs, indicating a downtrend.

RSI: The RSI is 8.53, indicating oversold conditions.

MACD: The MACD is -2.10, indicating a bearish signal.

Bollinger Bands: The stock is currently near the lower band, indicating potential for a bounce.

True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):

Options Flow Sentiment: The overall sentiment is balanced, with a call dollar volume of $74,730 and a put dollar volume of $54,410.

Call vs Put Analysis: The call percentage is 57.9%, and the put percentage is 42.1%, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment.

Key Price Levels:

25-Day Price Forecast:

Based on current technical trends, momentum, and indicators, CG is projected for $40.00 to $45.00.

Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:

Based on the price forecast, here are three defined risk strategy recommendations:

• Bull Call Spread: Buy the $40.00 call and sell the $45.00 call, expiring on October 16, 2026.
• Iron Condor: Sell the $40.00 put, buy the $37.00 put, sell the $45.00 call, and buy the $50.00 call, expiring on October 16, 2026.
• Protective Put: Buy the $40.00 put, expiring on October 16, 2026, to protect a long position.

Risk Factors:

• Technical warning signs, such as a break below $38.76.
• Sentiment divergences from price action.
• Volatility and ATR considerations.

Summary & Conviction Level:

Overall Bias: Neutral

Conviction Level: Medium

One-line Trade Idea: CG may experience a bounce from oversold conditions, but faces resistance at $45.00.