TRU-SENTIMENT · DeltaNeutral
AXSM Trading Analysis - 09/11/2026 03:31 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT
Options chain · Stock chart · Baseline chart
AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics, Inc) at $221.07. True Sentiment Bullish, delta 40-60 call 65% / put 35%, call $553,830 vs put $300,340. RSI 65.9.
- Symbol
- AXSM
- Price
- $221.07
- Article bias (separate from True Sentiment)
- bullish
- Conviction
- medium
- Published
- 2026-09-11 15:31:00 ET
- Author
- DeltaNeutral staff
TRUE SENTIMENT ANALYSIS (DELTA 40-60 OPTIONS)
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):Overall options flow sentiment: Bullish
Call vs Put dollar volume:
- Call dollar volume: $553,830
- Put dollar volume: $300,340
The options flow sentiment is bullish, with a higher call dollar volume compared to put dollar volume. This suggests that traders are expecting the stock price to increase in the near term.
Key Statistics: AXSM
Fundamental Snapshot
Valuation
| P/E (Trailing) | -56.45 |
| P/E (Forward) | N/A |
| PEG Ratio | N/A |
| Price/Book | 258.04 |
Profitability
| EPS (Trailing) | $-3.74 |
| EPS (Forward) | N/A |
| ROE | -230.05% |
| Net Margin | -24.68% |
Financial Health
| Revenue (TTM) | $776.57M |
| Debt/Equity | 8.14 |
| Free Cash Flow | N/A |
| Rev Growth | N/A |
Analyst Consensus
📈 Analysis
News Headlines & Context:
Recent news headlines for AXSM include:
- Axsome Therapeutics Announces Commercial Availability of Zoloft (Sertraline) in the US (Source: Company Press Release)
- Axsome Therapeutics Reports Q2 2026 Financial Results and Provides Business Update (Source: Company Press Release)
- AXSM Stock Surges on Positive Phase 3 Trial Results for Novel Therapeutic Agent (Source: MarketWatch)
These headlines suggest that AXSM has been experiencing significant developments in its business, including commercial availability of new products and positive trial results. These catalysts could impact the stock's price action and sentiment.
Fundamental Analysis:
Based on the provided fundamentals data:
- Total Revenue: $776,569,000
- Trailing EPS: -$3.74
- Trailing P/E: -56.45
- Price-to-Book: 258.04
- Debt-to-Equity: 8.14
- Return on Equity (ROE): -2.30%
- Operating Margins: -23.96%
- Profit Margins: -24.68%
The fundamentals indicate that AXSM has a significant debt-to-equity ratio and negative profit margins, which could be a concern. However, the company's revenue growth and earnings trends are not provided, making it difficult to assess the stock's overall fundamental health.
Current Market Position:
Current price: $221.06
Recent price action: The stock has shown significant intraday momentum, with a high of $229.62 and a low of $212.44 on September 11, 2026.
Key support and resistance levels:
- Support: $210.63 (September 9, 2026, close)
- Resistance: $229.62 (intraday high on September 11, 2026)
Technical Analysis:
SMA trends:
- 5-day SMA: $211.46
- 20-day SMA: $208.99
- 50-day SMA: $221.41
RSI (14): 65.9
MACD: -2.4 (MACD), -1.92 (Signal), -0.48 (Histogram)
Bollinger Bands:
- Middle: $208.99
- Upper: $220.40
- Lower: $197.59
The technical indicators suggest that the stock is currently in a bullish trend, with the RSI above 50 and the MACD showing a bullish crossover. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the stock is trading near the upper band, which could be a sign of overbought conditions.
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):
Overall options flow sentiment: Bullish
Call vs Put dollar volume:
- Call dollar volume: $553,830
- Put dollar volume: $300,340
The options flow sentiment is bullish, with a higher call dollar volume compared to put dollar volume. This suggests that traders are expecting the stock price to increase in the near term.
Key Price Levels:
Support levels:
- $210.63 (September 9, 2026, close)
- $205.40 (intraday low on August 24, 2026)
Resistance levels:
- $229.62 (intraday high on September 11, 2026)
- $235.10 (July 31, 2026, high)
25-Day Price Forecast:
AXSM is projected for $224.11 to $240.92
Based on the current technical trends, momentum, and indicators, the stock price is expected to continue its bullish trend. The 50-day SMA is acting as a support level, and the RSI is above 50, indicating bullish momentum. The MACD is also showing a bullish crossover, which could lead to further price increases. However, the Bollinger Bands indicate that the stock is trading near overbought conditions, which could lead to a pullback.
Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:
Based on the price forecast, here are three defined risk strategy recommendations:
- Buy Bull Call Spread: Buy 1 AXSM 261016C00220000 (220.0 strike) and Sell 1 AXSM 261016C00240000 (240.0 strike)
- Buy Iron Condor: Sell 1 AXSM 261016P00210000 (210.0 strike) and Buy 1 AXSM 261016P00220000 (220.0 strike), Sell 1 AXSM 261016C00230000 (230.0 strike) and Buy 1 AXSM 261016C00240000 (240.0 strike)
- Buy Protective Put: Buy 1 AXSM 261016P00220000 (220.0 strike)
These strategies align with the projected price range and provide defined risk exposure to the stock.
Risk Factors:
Technical warning signs or weaknesses:
- Overbought conditions near the upper Bollinger Band
Sentiment divergences from price action:
- None
Volatility and ATR considerations:
- ATR (14): 6.77
Any factors that could invalidate the thesis:
- Significant earnings miss or negative catalysts
- Breakdown below key support levels
Summary & Conviction Level:
Overall bias: Bullish
Conviction level: Medium
One-line trade idea: Consider buying AXSM with defined risk strategies to capitalize on potential price increases.
View AXSM Options Chain