ARWR Trading Analysis - 09/21/2026 10:31 AM — TRU-SENTIMENT

News Headlines & Context:

Recent news headlines for ARWR include:

• Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals announces positive topline results from Phase 1/2 study of ARO-DGAT2 for treatment of hypertriglyceridemia.
• Company reports financial results for fiscal year 2023, highlighting significant revenue growth.
• ARWR receives orphan drug designation from FDA for ARO-ANG3, a treatment for homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia.

These headlines suggest positive developments in ARWR's pipeline and potential for future growth.

Fundamental Analysis:

Revenue and Profit Margins: The provided fundamentals data shows a total revenue of $669,495,000, but revenue growth rate and gross margins are not available. The operating and profit margins are -33.82% and -40.65%, respectively, indicating current challenges in profitability.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): The trailing EPS is -$2.25, and the trailing P/E ratio is -29.55, suggesting that the stock may be overvalued based on current earnings.

Valuation and Debt: The price-to-book ratio is 40.45, and the debt-to-equity ratio is 3.53, indicating high leverage.

Key Fundamental Concerns: High debt levels, negative profit margins, and a potentially overvalued P/E ratio are significant concerns.

Current Market Position:

Current Price and Action: The current price of ARWR is $67.50. Recent price action shows a slight increase, but it remains below key moving averages.

Support and Resistance: Key support levels are around $64.89 (Bollinger Band lower bound), and resistance levels are near $82.55 (50-day SMA).

Intraday Momentum: Intraday momentum from minute bars shows price fluctuations but no clear directional trend.

Technical Analysis:

SMA Trends: The 5-day SMA is $67.64, the 20-day SMA is $80.69, and the 50-day SMA is $82.55. The price is below all these averages, with a recent bearish crossover.

RSI: The RSI (14) is 24.74, indicating oversold conditions.

MACD: The MACD is -$4.62, with a signal line at -$3.70, indicating a bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands: The price is near the lower band, suggesting potential for a bounce.

30-day High/Low: The price is near the lower end of its 30-day range.

True Sentiment Analysis:

Options Flow Sentiment: The overall sentiment from true sentiment options analysis is bearish, with a call percentage of 7.1% and put percentage of 92.9%.

Call vs Put: The call dollar volume is $1120, and put dollar volume is $14,740, indicating strong bearish conviction.

Key Price Levels:

Support: $64.89 (Bollinger Band lower bound), $67.50 (current price), $70.00 (strike price).

Resistance: $80.69 (20-day SMA), $82.55 (50-day SMA), $90.97 (52-week high).

25-Day Price Forecast:

Based on current trends, ARWR is projected for $63.50 to $72.00 in 25 days, considering the recent bearish trend, oversold RSI, and potential bounce from Bollinger Band lower bound.

Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:

Strategy 1: Bear Put Spread - Buy $67.5 put, sell $70 put (expiration: 2026-10-16). This strategy benefits from a potential drop to support levels.

Strategy 2: Iron Condor - Sell $67.5 call, buy $70 call, sell $75 put, buy $72.5 put (expiration: 2026-10-16). This strategy profits from a stable price range.

Strategy 3: Protective Put - Buy $67.5 put (expiration: 2026-10-16) for existing long positions, providing downside protection.

Risk Factors:

Technical Weakness: Bearish SMA crossovers and low RSI.

Sentiment Divergences: Bearish options sentiment vs. potential technical bounce.

Volatility: High ATR of 4.12 indicates potential for large price swings.

Summary & Conviction Level:

Overall Bias: Bearish.

Conviction Level: Medium.

Trade Idea: Consider bearish strategies like bear put spreads or iron condors.