TRU-SENTIMENT · DeltaNeutral
AAOI Trading Analysis - 09/11/2026 12:37 PM — TRU-SENTIMENT
Options chain · Stock chart · Baseline chart
AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.) at $105.78. True Sentiment Bearish, delta 40-60 call 12% / put 88%, call $1,319,590 vs put $9,906,400. RSI 34.6.
- Symbol
- AAOI
- Price
- $105.78
- Article bias (separate from True Sentiment)
- bullish
- Conviction
- medium
- Published
- 2026-09-11 12:37:00 ET
- Author
- DeltaNeutral staff
TRUE SENTIMENT ANALYSIS (DELTA 40-60 OPTIONS)
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):Overall options flow sentiment: Bearish
Call vs Put dollar volume: 11.8% calls, 88.2% puts
The pure directional positioning suggests near-term bearish expectations.
Key Statistics: AAOI
Fundamental Snapshot
Valuation
| P/E (Trailing) | -137.72 |
| P/E (Forward) | N/A |
| PEG Ratio | N/A |
| Price/Book | 13.89 |
Profitability
| EPS (Trailing) | $-0.75 |
| EPS (Forward) | N/A |
| ROE | -3.42% |
| Net Margin | -9.57% |
Financial Health
| Revenue (TTM) | $595.97M |
| Debt/Equity | 0.38 |
| Free Cash Flow | N/A |
| Rev Growth | N/A |
Analyst Consensus
📈 Analysis
News Headlines & Context:
Recent news and social media posts suggest a bullish sentiment for AAOI. Some key points include:
- Seasonal bullishness for September 11, historically one of the most bullish days of the year.
- Increasing demand for AI infrastructure, which could benefit AAOI's optics business.
- Technical analysis suggesting a potential squeeze or breakout.
These headlines relate to the technical and sentiment data, as they may influence investor behavior and stock price movement.
X/Twitter Sentiment (live xAI x_search, cited only):
| User | Post | Sentiment | Time | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RatWasteCapital | Just FYI 9/11 is one of the most seasonally bullish days of the year. $SPY $QQQ $AAOI | Bullish | Thu, 10 Sep 2026 23:45:15 GMT | https://x.com/RatWasteCapital/status/2098196132715246003 |
| sonnyilysh2004 | $LITE $AAOI A very interesting data point from TrendForce’s latest 2Q26 global foundry research. ... Long Memory. Long Optics. | Bullish | Thu, 10 Sep 2026 23:26:50 GMT | https://x.com/sonnyilysh2004/status/2098191499628593374 |
| netizonee | September advice: ... $AAOI — Buy at $95–$99 ... | Bullish | Thu, 10 Sep 2026 23:26:04 GMT | https://x.com/netizonee/status/2098191304232681520 |
| iWatchUSleeeep | $AAOI requested. Price is pinned between the 50dma and 200dma. ... A squeeze is coming, wont be tomorrow and probably not next week but soon. | Bullish | Thu, 10 Sep 2026 23:11:57 GMT | https://x.com/iWatchUSleeeep/status/2098187752235848123 |
| blknpoiz06 | Following @DENNISBRUCEROD1’s insights and watching $AAOI & $CRDO closely. Really interested to see how these two develop as AI infrastructure demand keeps growing. | Bullish | Thu, 10 Sep 2026 23:08:52 GMT | https://x.com/blknpoiz06/status/2098186977703231603 |
| Thenotknown1 | D.E. Research -- TRADING SIGNAL FOR SEP 11, 2026 ... $AAOI Action: REBALANCE (BUY MORE) Order: 29 | Bullish | Thu, 10 Sep 2026 23:05:01 GMT | https://x.com/Thenotknown1/status/2098186009544622443 |
| ScottRobo308 | Cash secured puts and covered calls closed and opened today…. ... $AAOI $AAOX ... | Neutral | Thu, 10 Sep 2026 22:57:26 GMT | https://x.com/ScottRobo308/status/2098184100574032071 |
| Gammaoptions99 | $AAOI $103.14 Price is sitting on a calm node at 103, with 100 also calm just below — modest cushion after the drop. ... Holds 103 → grinds toward 110 pin. | Bullish | Thu, 10 Sep 2026 22:35:06 GMT | https://x.com/Gammaoptions99/status/2098178478835400961 |
Recent English posts on $AAOI are mostly bullish, highlighting buy signals, AI optics demand, squeezes, and seasonal bullishness for September 11.
Fundamental Analysis:
Based on the provided fundamentals data:
- Revenue: $595,970,000.00
- Trailing EPS: -$0.75
- Trailing P/E: -137.72
- Price-to-Book: 13.89
- Debt-to-Equity: 0.38
- Return on Equity: -0.03
- Gross Margins: 0.29
- Operating Margins: -0.11
- Profit Margins: -0.10
The company has a negative trailing EPS and profit margins, but a relatively healthy gross margin. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate. The trailing P/E ratio is negative, indicating potential undervaluation.
Current Market Position:
Current price: $105.81
Recent price action: The stock has been trading between $100 and $110, with a recent bounce off the lower end of the range.
Key support and resistance levels: $100, $110
Intraday momentum: Neutral, with a slight bullish bias.
Technical Analysis:
SMA trends:
- 5-day SMA: $106.82
- 20-day SMA: $115.77
- 50-day SMA: $114.74
The stock is currently below the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, indicating a bearish trend.
RSI: 34.56, indicating oversold conditions.
MACD: -$5.24, indicating a bearish signal.
Bollinger Bands: The stock is currently near the lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions.
30-day high/low: The stock is currently near the lower end of the range.
True Sentiment Analysis (Delta 40-60 Options):
Overall options flow sentiment: Bearish
Call vs Put dollar volume: 11.8% calls, 88.2% puts
The pure directional positioning suggests near-term bearish expectations.
Key Price Levels (observational only):
Support: $100, $105
Resistance: $110, $115
25-Day Price Forecast:
AAOI is projected for $108.00 to $118.00
Based on current technical trends, momentum, and indicators, the stock is expected to bounce back from oversold conditions and reach the upper end of the range.
Defined Risk Strategy Recommendations:
Based on the price forecast, here are three defined risk strategy recommendations:
- Bull Call Spread: Buy $110 call, sell $115 call, expiring 2026-10-16. This strategy aligns with the projected price increase and allows for a defined risk/reward ratio.
- Bear Put Spread: Sell $100 put, buy $95 put, expiring 2026-10-16. This strategy hedges against potential downside risk.
- Iron Condor: Sell $110 call, buy $115 call, sell $100 put, buy $95 put, expiring 2026-10-16. This strategy allows for a defined risk/reward ratio and profits from a stable price range.
Risk Factors:
Technical warning signs:
- Bearish MACD signal
- Below 20-day and 50-day SMAs
Sentiment divergences:
- Bullish social media posts vs bearish options flow
Volatility and ATR considerations:
- Increased volatility could impact the stock price
Summary & Conviction Level:
Overall bias: Bullish
Conviction level: Medium
One-line trade idea: AAOI may bounce back from oversold conditions and reach $110-$115.
View AAOI Options Chain